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Kempton Stats For 26, 27 + 28 December!

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Posted on 22nd December 2017

Dear Friend,

Here is Darren + the guys from On Course Profits with news of the racing from Boxing Day!

Here goes...

Kempton Stats For 26th, 27th + 28th December

The Kempton Statistics you need to know for Christmas…

The kids may have Christmas Day but us punters have Boxing Day…and the 27th…and the 28th…in fact the racing from the 26th until almost the 31st is chocked full of quality racing for us National Hunt fanatics, I guess it’s our reward for smiling and nodding throughout Christmas Eve and Christmas Day when, let’s face it, our minds are fully transfixed on the racing that’s waiting for us over the Christmas Day hump!

The highlight of the festive racing is undoubtedly Kempton’s King George meeting, with the King George VI Chase the focal point of the two days.

It’s a meeting I love attacking from a trends / stats viewpoint and here are some of my observations for the two day festival, using the past five years as my basis (2012 – 2016)…

Nicky Henderson

The trainer you want to have on your side…

Hendo is easily the most successful trainer at Kempton’s Christmas meeting and although you can’t make a profit following him blind his overall strike-rates do make for pleasant viewing…
14/50 | 28% S/R | -£7.68 LSP – Win & Place 20/50 | 40% S/R

1% above expectation

14 winners and a 28% strike-rate is pretty damn good. The profits are not there, admittedly, but that’s no real surprise. He is, however, some way clear of the rest of the pack with regards to winners and a bit of digging into the wider stats do help find us profits…

Horses with 10 or less career starts to their name…

12/30 | 40% S/R | +£7.71 LSP – Win & Place 16/30 | 53% S/R

…an angle that can be tightened further by adding in an SP filter…

Horses with 10 or less career starts to their name | SP of 13/2 or less…

12/23 | 52% S/R | +£14.17 LSP – Win & Place 14/23 | 61% S/R

Paul Nicholls’ runners are massively over-bet…

That could well be a statement that’s applied to most meeting at any time of the year when it comes to Nicholls and although the former champion trainer fires in plenty of winners at the two day meeting (second behind Henderson with number of winners) you would have blown a massive hole in your Christmas money had you followed him blind over the past five years…

7/53 | 13% S/R | -£32.83 LSP – Win & Place 17/53 | 32% S/R

31% below expectation

Handicaps blow the biggest hole in the profits as he is a drastically poor 0/17 in that sphere so it makes sense to look for a profitable angle within his Non-Handicap runners only.

And the only way to do that, unfortunately, is to look at his non-handicap runners that start at an SP of less than 4/1…

7/14 | 50% S/R | +£6.17 LSP – Win & Place 8/14 | 57% S/R

38% above expectation

A bit tight on the profits but if you are going to profit from Nicholls here you are going to need to specialize.

Noel Fehily is fully focussed for the two days…

Maybe it’s because he’s got a lot of presents to pay for from the previous day or maybe it’s because he’s got a festive name and he feels it’s his duty to be at the top of his game…whatever the reason may be Fehily is a jockey that it’s worth having on your side over the two days…

12/42 | 29% S/R | +£6.89 LSP – Win & Place 17/42 | 40% S/R

40% above expectation.

I hope you found that useful :-)

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Keep a look out for our next informative + money-making email soon!

Kind Regards :-)

Richard

The UK Horse Racing Experts
www.TheUKHorseRacingExperts.co.uk