Nicholls Outsider Looks 80/1 Gold Cup Value


Posted on 29th January 2018

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Here is Dave again with his insight's + his FREE tip!

Here goes...

Ladies Day at Cheltenham

Two weeks ago I was waxing lyrical about jockey Bryony Frost after her ride on Milansbar to win the Classic Chase at Warwick. I find myself this week doing the same thing again. Frodon took the big handicap on Cheltenham Trials Day and once again the win showcased the riding ability of the young jockey. Her knack for getting a horse settled and into a good jumping rhythm, I have already highlighted and it was once again in evidence in her ride on Frodon. This time though we can add racing intelligence to her resume.

Before racing, she had walked the course and noted that there was a fresh strip of ground on the inside due to rail movement. Thus, she was not going to give up the inside to anyone and racing on that quicker ground was evident as the horse speeded away from his rivals after the second last. On this occasion, she had out thought more senior jockeys who were making their efforts on the slower parts of the track. In some ways, the ride she gave Frodon was even better than the one she gave Milansbar, as she added an extra dimension to her race riding.

I doubt this will be the last time this season that I will start my Monday column praising this young jockey. It’s not just in the saddle where her talents are on show. She has that infectious personality that racing needs and sadly racing does lack those personalities that are able to reach out to the wider sporting population.

It was Ladies Day on Cheltenham Trial’s Day, as Lizzie Kelly also rode a winner on her Father’s Agrapart to win the Cleeve Hurdle. The mud-loving seven-year-old added to my bank balance so am slightly biased in regards to his performance. The rain that fell had turned the going to heavy which would always play to the strengths of Agrapart who just stays all day and found plenty for pressure to see of the strong-travelling Wholestone on the run-in.

We Definitely Didn’t See the Gold Cup Winner

On the subject of Cheltenham Trial’s Day, I suspect next weekend's Leopardstown Dublin Racing Festival, which is building up to be a feast of high-class racing action, will have more influence on Cheltenham in March than Saturday’s action.

I know Dave Orton from the Racing Post thinks that Cotswold Chase winner Definitely Red is too big at 20/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. If the 9-year-old was trained by a more fashionable trainer than Brian Ellison he would be half those odds after his Saturday win. Yes, he has now earned the right to have a tilt and jumps racings ‘Blue Riband’ race and in an open looking year he has a chance but he’s no Gold Cup winner for me!

Cheltenham Festival: Horses for the Tracker

Two weeks ago I put up Coo Star Sivola as one for your Cheltenham trackers. He was well backed into 3/1 for the race that Frodon won, he should have gone for the novice handicap chase 35 minutes earlier, but could only finish 4th. That said he was taking on more experienced handicappers and the six-year-old will have learnt plenty from the race. He’s not one to give up on and there remains a decent handicap in him off his present mark, on a sounder surface than he faced here.

This week’s horse for your Cheltenham trackers is Saphir Du Rheu for the Gold Cup. You’re probably thinking I have taken leave of my senses. Saying Definitely Red can’t win the race but then going on to put up the Paul Nicholls' horse as the value bet for the race.

Well here are my thoughts: Three of his best five Racing Post Ratings (RPR’s) have come at Cheltenham, two of those at the Festival. He was 5th in last years Gold Cup beaten just over 6 lengths by Sizing John. Looking back at the video of the race he travelled and jumped really well and was going as well as anything three out. All despite racing out widest and covering far more ground than those who finished in front of him. He will be making his seasonal reappearance next month probably in the Kelso race he won last year. In an open looking year I can see the 9-year-old reaching the frame this year and at 80/1 with William Hill (NRNB) looks a good each way bet. It’s just a shame that Bryony won’t be taking the ride.

Monday Racing

Well after the weekend action it’s back to more mundane fare with jumps meetings at Hereford and Plumpton over jumps and a twilight all-weather card at Wolverhampton.


3:25 – Tambura – The mare hasn’t really hit form this season but showed a bit of sparkle two starts back here before a slightly below par run at Ludlow. Back at her favourite track where she has won three times from seven runs is a positive and she is at her most effective in the mud. The 8-year-old now races off a 5lb lower mark than for her last win over C&D back in November 2016. On a winnable mark if she can return to something like her best.

Monday Selection – Tambura – 4/1

All that’s left now is to wish you a profitable week’s punting.

I hope you found that useful :-)

Information courtesy of the the Daily Punt.

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Kind Regards :-)


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